Who Goes?

With a big 9 game road trip against AL East opponents kicking off tonight, the only thing I can think about is our starting rotation.  Scott Kazmir returns this weekend, rumor has it he will toe the bump either Saturday or Sunday in Boston, which means that someone has to drop from the 5 man group that has kept the Rays in almost every game this season.  I hate that it has to happen, but I love the fact that we will be getting the AL strikeout leader back in the front of the rotation.  So who is it going to be?  Who is the odd man out?  Joe Maddon and the Rays brass will have a tough choice on who to keep, and unfortunately there are other factors that will weigh in on the decision(which stinks).  The only pitcher who is safe is James Shields, and rightfully so.  Here are the guys on the chopping block:

Matt Garza, 0-0, 7.62 era through 3 starts:

The Rays have yet to see the solid number 3 guy they wanted(and needed) when they sent Delmon Young and Brendan Harris to the Twins in exchange for him.  Garza has only had three starts, and none have been impressive.  He only pitched 3 innings in his second start against Seattle, and then they took him off the field and put him on the DL.  Garza has huge potential, and I like his overall make up.  He has lacks consistency, and that is what the Ray’s need to keep them in ball games.  He is probably the one who should go down to Triple A, but I am not sure the Rays will pull that trigger.  His next start is Thursday, and if he cant get in a groove, he might find himself in a Bulls uniform…and rightfully so.

Jason Hammel, 2-1, 4.32 era though 5 starts:

For a guy who probably shouldn’t have made the opening day rotation, Hammel is doing well.  He had a tough spring, but was awarded the last spot in the rotation over Jeff Niemann due to his past history with the club.  Hammel has done ok, he has managed to keep the ball down and stay out of major trouble in most innings, but he is a guy who could be on the bubble.  He pitched out of the bullpen last year, was subpar, and has verbally said he does not want to go back there(although he would if it means remaining in the majors).  I have never been a huge fan of Hammel, but this season he is beginning to put it all together and he appears to be finding his groove.  He is out of options and can not be sent to the minors without first clearing a waiver period, which the Rays know he will not clear.  Another team will swipe him up.  Hammel’s next start is tonight, and he really needs to impress or he could find himself in the bullpen.

 
Andy Sonnanstine, 3-1, 5.28 era through 5 starts:

Sonny has been good in 4 of his 5 starts, and the one he wasn’t good in, he was terrible.  The good news is that after he was knocked around by the Yankees, he took what he learned and applied it to his game and proceeded to throw a 3 hit complete game shut out against the White Sox.  Sonnanstine then took on the Blue Jays in Orlando and continued to impress, so it appears that he is learning and improving.  He is not an overpowering pitcher, his fast ball lingers around the mid 80′s, but what Sonny lacks in speed he makes up with finesse and arm slot trickery.  He has some sick moving off speed stuff, and he can throw most of his pitches from three different arm angles, deceiving hitters.  He works a quick game, something the defense appreciates, and doesn’t rattle easily.  The key to his game is working the fastball with enough control that his other pitches become dominant.  I love this kid, and I think if they leave him in the rotation he will have a surprising year, possibly notching 12-15 wins.  The down side to Sonny is that he still has options left, which means that the Rays could option him back to Triple A and not lose him on waivers.  His next start is Wednesday and he will have to maintain his rhythm if he wants to hang on in the rotation.

Edwin Jackson, 2-2, 3.86 era through 5 starts:

EJ has electric stuff, and the only one who thinks otherwise is Jackson himself.  He is the prototypical Jekyll and Hyde pitcher, you never know who will show up when he toes the rubber.  When the “good” Jackson comes to the mound, he is nearly unhittable using an arsenal anchored by a mid to upper 90′s fast ball and a filthy slider.  On the flip side, when the “bad” EJ comes to play, he is inconsistent and has trouble finding the strike zone, often leaving the ball on one plane making it predictable and easy to hit.  The kid can pitch, and he has lights out stuff(just ask the Redsox), but he is young and his biggest problem is the head games he plays with himself.  Last year was a disaster for Jackson, but he came on strong at the end of the year and has been 50-50 this year.  Like Hammel, Jackson is out of options and the Rays would risk losing him if they try and option him to Triple A.  His next start is Friday in Fenway, a hard place to pitch for anyone, but he will have to duplicate his last performance or risk finding himself in the Rays pen.

With Garza and Sonnanstine the only two with options, it looks like Sonny may find himself holding the bag regardless of how well he has been pitching.  The Rays could move someone to the bullpen and demote a reliever, but that is unlikely.  Garza should be the one to go, based on performance, but life isn’t always fair, as Sonny may soon find out.